About Footy Preds
Footy Preds is an independent, hobby-built project predicting Premier League matches
with a genuine statistical model -- Dixon-Coles -- checked against live betting odds.
Why this exists
Most prediction sites either hand-wave a "gut feeling" or hide their method entirely.
Footy Preds is built around a statistical approach with real, checkable maths behind it --
Dixon-Coles fits an attack and defense strength for every team from five seasons of real
results, and turns those into a full probability distribution for every scoreline, not
just a single guess. Running it against what the betting market actually prices turns out
to be a genuinely interesting way to check its calibration. The full methodology is on the
How It Works page.
What Footy Preds is not
It's not a bookmaker, doesn't accept bets, and isn't a guaranteed way to make money from
football. Predictions are exactly that -- probabilistic estimates from a statistical
model, not certainties. The market comparison and odds data are for transparency and
interest, not financial advice.
How it's built
Everything here is generated from real public data sources (see the full list on the
How It Works page), run automatically on a schedule, with
no manual intervention in the actual predictions or odds shown.
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